Senate Forecast
Democrats have a 35% chance of Senate control.
Throughout a total of 1,000 simulations.
Republicans have a 65% chance of Senate control.
Throughout a total of 1,000 simulations.
Race Estimate
Democrats are expected to receive 49.3 seats.
And never had less than 45 in our simulations.
Republicans are expected to receive 50.7 seats.
And never had less than 46 in our simulations.
Interactive Map
Interactive Senate Map
Created in partnership with Simplemaps.
State of the Race
33 regularly scheduled Senate races will be occurring this November, along with two special elections in California and Nebraska (in California, the special election is for the same seat as the regular one, so we won’t be including it in our model). This map is a tough one for Democrats, and it doesn’t help that Senator Manchin’s retirement in West Virginia is likely to become an autoflip for the Republicans. However, poor Republican candidates in certain Senate races have given some hope to the Democrats.
