NOTICE: This forecast ended on November 5, 2024, and it is final.
House Forecast
Democrats have a 79% chance of House control.
Throughout a total of 1,000 simulations.
Republicans have a 21% chance of House control.
Throughout a total of 1,000 simulations.
Race Estimate
Democrats are expected to receive 220.3 seats.
And never had less than 205 in our simulations.
Republicans are expected to receive 214.7 seats.
And never had less than 202 in our simulations.
Interactive Map
Interactive House Map
Created in partnership with MapChart.
State of the Race
All 435 seats in the House are up for grabs this November, but only a handful of competitive races will decide control. Most of those races are in California and New York, where Democrats lost nearly every battleground seat in 2022. They’re hoping to win them back this year, and if they’re successful, it’s likely that they’ll take back the House. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, pickup opportunities are a bit more limited according to our model, so they’ll have to play a lot of defense to keep their majority.
