About BallotCast
BallotCast is dedicated to being an independent, unbiased, and nonpartisan website for election forecasts. We provide in-depth analysis of individual races, data-driven chances for candidate victories, and easily understandable graphics to present our findings. Launched in early 2024, BallotCast is ready to work for you; whether you’re a candidate, an analyst, a campaign worker, a voter, or just an enthusiast for politics, we are here to provide you the facts.
Current Forecasts
Recently, our forecasts for the 2025 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey were launched, along with a forecast for the consequential Proposition 50 in California. Our models for all three forecasts will be regularly updated until Election Day. Additionally, the analysis on all of these predictions will be changed periodically, so be sure to come back and check for updates.
New Additions
We are very excited to announce the implementation of our polling aggregate page. From now until Election Day, we will be regularly updating the polling pages for all of the elections being tracked by BallotCast. Another recent addition to this website is the custom election predictor. It allows any user of our website to see and experiment with the real BallotCast model. Make sure to check out both of these new features!
Methodology
All of our predictions, analysis, and forecasts are built on a variety of different data points. We use polling, trends, previous election results, candidate quality, incumbency, the national political climate, and more to predict each and every individual race.
2024 Results
In our first year of forecasting, BallotCast achieved a 96.3% accuracy rate, surpassing all of our expectations. Our data-driven model correctly predicted many close races in which other forecasters were off. We are committed to improving our model for future elections and making our accuracy rate as high as possible.